Criteria & Sources
What are the gating criteria?
Gating criteria are the data-driven conditions each region or state should satisfy before proceeding to a phased opening.

For this site, we are using the gating criteria provided by the White House. In their Reopening America Again guidelines. The document does not specifically identify data sources or measures, so we had to translate what those meant.

We've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness, and increased test capacity.
For each of the criteria we've sourced publicly available data that best represents where a state is at. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data.

Using this data, we assign a "Red", "Yellow", "Green" score to each measure.
Traditionally, gating criteria is binary: you either meet the criteria (green) or you don't (red). Unfortunately, if that's what we did when we started this phase of the project early in May, every state would be red because no one met the gating criteria. To recognize states making progress, we've identified yellow as a range which indicates a state is close to the gating criteria.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it. In the meantime, we updated the descriptions for "Red", "Yellow" and "Green" to better reflect what it means to be "Green". If a state has met all the criteria, it means it moves into Phase 1 of 3.
According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.
What is each measure and how is it scored?

14 Day Trend of COVID+
This is the last 14 days of COVID positive cases using a 7 day rolling average. This data is updated daily and comes from the COVID Tracking Project.


Influenza-Like Illness Indicator
Activity levels are based on the percent of outpatient visits due to influenza-like illness (ILI) in a jurisdiction compared with the average percent of ILI visits that occur during weeks with little or no influenza virus circulation (i.e., non-influenza weeks) in that jurisdiction. This data is updated weekly and comes from the CDC.


ICU Capacity
The National Healthcare Safety Network provides daily updates of the ICU occupancy across the United States. This only includes a subset of facilities in the United States, the ones participating in the program. This data is updated daily and comes from the CDC.


Bed Capacity
The National Healthcare Safety Network provides daily updates of the inpatient bed occupancy across the United States. This only includes a subset of facilities in the United States, the ones participating in the program. This data is updated daily and comes from the CDC.


% of Test Target
We are using a test target of 500,000 tests conducted per day across the United States. This metric calculates what that burden is for each state based on per-capita using the latest 7 day rolling average of tests conducted. This data is updated daily and comes from the COVID Tracking Project.


% Test Positive
This metric calculates how many positive cases have been surfaced from testing. This metric looks at the rolling average of the past 7 days. This data is updated daily and comes from the COVID Tracking Project.

How is the aggregate score determined?
For each state, we use a red, yellow, green scale to chart the progress towards achieving the gating criteria. This is calculated using a simple rule. The score is as good as the weakest measure, with one exception. The only exception is if cases are decreasing. We indicate a yellow grade, even if there are reds on other measures.

For example: if ICU capacity is yellow, % testing positive is green, and case trend is red, the score is red. An example of the exception: if ICU capacity is red, % testing positive is green, and case trend is green, the score is yellow.
Questions?
Please send feedback or questions to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org.