Updated: 10/18 at 8:30pm PT. Please Shift + Refresh for the latest. If you have feedback send it to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response

Each state's progress towards a new normal
Earlier today, CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, U.S. Digital Response, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press webinar outlining new data on COVID-19 hospitalizations, data challenges, the upcoming election and steps the federal government can take to provide COVID relief.

You can view the video of the press conference here.
October 12 - Adding Mask Wearing Data & Community Spread Data from CMU Delphi Surveys
We've updated our "How is the Disease Spreading" table to include the "% of people wearing masks most or all of the time while in public" and "% of people who know someone in their local community with COVID-like symptoms". This data is from the daily survey run by CMU's Delphi group. Over 1.2 million people have taken the survey in the last 30 days. Amounting to about 70K people daily.
October 1 - Click on Main Map for Timeline of Cases & Positivity for Each State
We've updated our main map to show you a timeline of CASES PER MILLION and POSITIVITY since the start of this crisis. Click on a state, and you will see:

September 21 - Op-Ed: The White House Coronavirus Task Force needs to stop hiding its weekly reports from the public
Like a hurricane, a virus has no respect for borders or state lines. All data regarding the COVID response that is assembled by the White House Coronavirus Task Force and HHS must be shared with everyone. A public crisis requires a unified public response. A unified public response requires public data.

Read the full op-ed at STAT.
How Is My State Measured?
Using the gating criteria provided by the White House, we've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness,  and increased testing.
In interpreting the criteria, we infer that having a “robust testing program in place” means an ample amount of tests (> 500K tests per day) and a good test positivity rate (<5%). See our criteria.

According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it.
How is My State Doing on Key Measures?
Using a simple red, yellow, green scale, you can see the progress towards the key measures.
How is the Disease Spreading?
What's critical is a downward trajectory of illness reported and documented cases.
Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?
Bed and ICU availability, case fatality rate, and cases per capita are a proxy for load on our hospitals. Not all data refreshes daily. Bed and ICU availability only refreshes Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday.
How Is My State Doing On Testing?
We track our country's daily progress towards two goals: reaching a baseline of 500K tests per day and an incident adjusted target per day. The targets for each state have been adjusted per capita.
What Data Are Missing?
Using sources like the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC we are able to start measure how a state is controlling the epidemic. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data. For the moment, this is the best representation of how a state is doing based on publicly available information.

Unfortunately, we cannot track how states are deploying contact tracing programs because that data is not reported yet. We also lack data sources for how states are implementing safe quarantine spaces. Once that data is available, we'll incorporate it.
Data & Sources
The data for this site comes from COVIDTracking.com (pulled on 10/18 at 8:30pm PT), COVID Act Now (pulled on 10/13 at 9:10pm PT), the CDC and HHS (ILI pulled at 10/18 at 8:30pm PT, ICU/bed occupancy pulled on 10/13 at 9:10pm PT), CMU US Symptom Survey (pulled on 10/18 at 8:30pm PT), covid19statepolicy.org (pulled at 10/15 at 11:15pm PT). The data powering the charts can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
We are a group of public health & crisis experts with experience working at the White House, Department of Health & Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Learn more.