Updated: 8/5 at 8:30pm PT. Please Shift + Refresh for the latest. If you have feedback send it to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response

Each state's progress towards a new normal
July 29 - New Incidence Adjusted Testing Targets; Ability to Contact Trace;  ICU & Bed Data Issues
Since launching we've tracked two test targets for the United States: 500K tests per day and 4M tests per day. The first target was a baseline number of tests needing to be run to get a grasp of how the virus is spreading. The upper bound was an aspirational target for where the country needed to be.

We are removing the 4M tests per day target and replacing it with an "incidence based target". This new target adjusts based on a state's positivity rate. When the positivity rate is high, it means a state needs to be testing more. When the positivity rate is low, it means a state can test less, but should not dip below its proportion of the 500K tests per day that the US needs to do. The target positivity is 3% or lower.

Our main table has been updated to incorporate this target. Our supporting testing table has been updated as well.

We have also added a column that assesses if a state is able to efficiently conduct contact tracing. When positivity within a state is high, it means contact tracing is likely to be unsuccessful. When positivity is low, a state has a better chance of using contact tracing successfully.

The data for estimated ICU and inpatient bed occupancy are still not available. The HHS Protect site has not been updated, but there is a dataset on HealthData.gov that shares the daily "reported" data. Since this data is not complete, it does not always portray an accurate picture of how a state is doing. We rely on CDC/HHS to generate its "estimated” dataset to do that. For the time being, we recommend cross-checking these numbers with the ones reported on a state's official website to get an accurate picture.
July 28 - ICU and Bed Occupancy Data from HHS Protect - Not Being Updated
The data for ICU and inpatient bed occupancy has not been updated since July 23. This is unfortunate as we are seeing hospitalizations increase in 29 states. Without this critical indicator, it is hard to assess how a state's health system is responding to the surge of cases.
July 24 - Inconsistencies in HHS Protect Data for ICU and Bed Occupancy
We have halted pulling in ICU and inpatient bed occupancy data from the new HHS Protect System. We will resume our data pulls when inconsistencies have been resolved.
July 23 - PRESS CALL - "UNCONTROLLABLE SPREAD, HHS/CDC DISCREPANCIES, MASK TIMELINES"
Earlier today CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, Covid19StatePolicy.org, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press webinar outlining new data on COVID-19 surges, effectiveness of masks and also addressed the new policy of data being sent to HHS rather than the CDC. You can view the video of the webinar here and listen to the audio here.
July 21 - ICU and Bed Occupancy - The data is back!
HHS now makes the data available from its new system called HHS Protect. We've incorporated it and will refresh our columns as the data is updated.
July 17 - Op-Ed: Covid-19 data is a public good. The US government must start treating it like one.
Because the Administration requested all data from hospitals to be routed to HHS, our existing source of ICU and inpatient bed data from the CDC is no longer available. More details here.
How Is My State Measured?
Using the gating criteria provided by the White House, we've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness,  and increased testing.
In interpreting the criteria, we infer that having a “robust testing program in place” means an ample amount of tests (> 500K tests per day) and a good test positivity rate (<5%). See our criteria.

According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it.
How is My State Doing on Key Measures?
Using a simple red, yellow, green scale, you can see the progress towards the key measures.
How is the Disease Spreading?
What's critical is a downward trajectory of illness reported and documented cases.
Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?
Bed and ICU availability, case fatality rate, and cases per capita are a proxy for load on our hospitals. Not all data refreshes daily. Bed and ICU availability only refreshes Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday.
How Is My State Doing On Testing?
We track our country's daily progress towards two goals: reaching a baseline of 500K tests per day and an incident adjusted target per day. The targets for each state have been adjusted per capita.
What Data Are Missing?
Using sources like the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC we are able to start measure how a state is controlling the epidemic. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data. For the moment, this is the best representation of how a state is doing based on publicly available information.

Unfortunately, we cannot track how states are deploying contact tracing programs because that data is not reported yet. We also lack data sources for how states are implementing safe quarantine spaces. Once that data is available, we'll incorporate it.
Data & Sources
The data for this site comes from COVIDTracking.com (pulled on 8/5 at 8:30pm PT), rt.live (pulled on 8/5 at 8:30pm PT), the CDC and HHS (ILI pulled at 8/2 at 10:00pm PT, ICU/bed occupancy pulled on 8/5 at 8:30pm PT) , and covid19statepolicy.org (pulled at 8/5 at 8:30pm PT). The data powering the charts can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
Contributors
We are a group of public health & crisis experts with experience working at the White House, Department of Health & Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Learn more.