Updated: 5/27 at 9:20pm PT. Please Shift + Refresh for the latest. If you have feedback send it to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org

How We Reopen Safely

Tracking states as they make progress towards a new normal
May 27, 2020 - New Jersey, New Mexico, & New York
New Jersey, New Mexico, and New York are green with decreasing cases, a low positivity rate, and meeting the baseline testing target. Unfortunately though, all of them have an elevated case count per million. New Jersey is at 100, New York at 78 and New Mexico is at 64. Ideally this number is below 40.
May 25, 2020 - New Mexico, New Hampshire, & New York
After 7 days, New Mexico has shifted to yellow because of a flattening of new cases (-4%). Today will be New York's second day in the green with cases decreasing (-34%) and testing meeting the baseline target. However, it is worth noting that New York has an elevated number of cases per million (83). New Hampshire was briefly in the green yesterday, but back to yellow because of flat cases (-3%).
May 21, 2020 - Note on CDC Guidance
Our team is processing the latest guidance from the CDC on how to calculate if a state meets each of the gating criteria and how they shift between phases. It is thoughtful and will take some time to incorporate. For the time being, our red, yellow, green scale will indicate how a state is trending on the key measures that are a part of the White House criteria.
How Is My State Measured?
Using the gating criteria provided by the White House, we've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness,  and increased testing.
In interpreting the criteria, we infer that having a “robust testing program in place” means an ample amount of tests (> 500K tests per day) and a good test positivity rate (<5%). See our criteria.

According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it.
What Data Is Missing?
Using sources like the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC we are able to start measure how a state is controlling the epidemic. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data. For the moment, this is the best representation of how a state is doing based on publicly available information.

Unfortunately, we cannot track how states are deploying contact tracing programs because that data is not reported yet. We also lack data sources for how states are implementing safe quarantine spaces. Once that data is available, we'll incorporate it.
How is My State Doing on Key Measures?
Using a simple red, yellow, green scale, you can see the progress towards the key measures.
How is the Disease Spreading?
What's critical is a downward trajectory of illness reported and documented cases.
Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?
Bed and ICU availability, case fatality rate, and cases per capita are a proxy for load on our hospitals.
How Is My State Doing On Testing?
We track our country's daily progress towards two goals: reaching 500K tests per day and 4 million tests per day. The targets for each state have been adjusted per capita.
Data & Sources
The data for this site comes from COVIDTracking.com (pulled at 9:20pm on 5/27), rt.live (pulled at 9:20pm on 5/27), and the CDC (ILI pulled at 5:00pm on 5/25, ICU/bed occupancy pulled at 5:00pm on 5/25). The data powering the charts can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
Contributors
We are a group of public health & crisis experts with experience working at the White House, Department of Health & Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Learn more.