CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press conference call outlining the trends and concerns in states across the country that have seen increases in COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days. You can listen to audio of the press conference here.
The color trend now takes into account a state's CASES PER MILLION PER DAY. If the incidence rate is low (less than 40) it will not turn a state completely red. This impacts: Alaska, Montana, Michigan, Maine, and West Virginia. They are now yellow instead of red because of their low incident rate.
The ICU and bed thresholds have been adjusted: red is > 80% occupied, yellow is between 80%-70% occupied, and green is < 70% occupied. The measure has also changed from "availability to "occupied" to match how state websites report this information.
Yesterday, CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press conference call outlining the trends and concerns in states across the country that have seen increases in COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days. You can listen to an audio of the press conference here.
To better visualize how states are doing towards the two test targets, we've allowed the percentage bar to go past 100%.
Tip: If you are trying to filter multiple states in a particular table, you can type in "Florida Texas California" and it will just show those three states.
To quantify the burden on hospitals, we've added "CURRENTLY HOSPITALIZED PER MILLION" and the 14 day trend. This data is available for most states, except for Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, and Tennessee.
We are also calculating 2 additional indicators from the official CDC guidance. You can see that work here.
Massachusetts and Michigan started to include "probable" cases into their case counts. This caused a spike in new cases reported in MA on June 1st and MI on June 5th. For the moment, we have removed the data points for those days.
New Jersey, New Mexico, and New York are green with decreasing cases, a low positivity rate, and meeting the baseline testing target. Unfortunately though, all of them have an elevated case count per million. New Jersey is at 100, New York at 78 and New Mexico is at 64. Ideally this number is below 40.
After 7 days, New Mexico has shifted to yellow because of a flattening of new cases (-4%). Today will be New York's second day in the green with cases decreasing (-34%) and testing meeting the baseline target. However, it is worth noting that New York has an elevated number of cases per million (83). New Hampshire was briefly in the green yesterday, but back to yellow because of flat cases (-3%).
Our team is processing the latest guidance from the CDC on how to calculate if a state meets each of the gating criteria and how they shift between phases. It is thoughtful and will take some time to incorporate. For the time being, our red, yellow, green scale will indicate how a state is trending on the key measures that are a part of the White House criteria.
Using publicly available data we have adapted the criteria from Resolve to Save Lives into an alert system. We have created a section on the site where you can preview that.
Today, Michigan shifts to red because of an increase in cases (+8%).
New Mexico has met the criteria for 3 days in a row.
Guidance was released by the CDC yesterday on how they recommend scoring each measure. Our team is reviewing it. We'll share an update when we incorporate it.
This will be the third day that Michigan meets the criteria.
This will be the second continuous day for New Mexico.
This will be the second day that Michigan has met the criteria.
New Jersey was green on 5/16 and 5/17, but returned to yellow because its testing throughput dropped.
New Mexico returned to green because cases are decreasing (-11%).
5/17 is the first day that Michigan has met the criteria. This will be the second day for New Jersey.
New Mexico returned to yellow because cases are flat (-4%).
It is worth mentioning that both Kentucky and North Dakota are now red because cases are increasing.
5/16 is the first day that New Mexico and New Jersey have met the criteria.
While New Mexico's 14-day cases is decreasing, it is doing so at a very slow rate (-8%).
New Jersey has met the criteria with cases decreasing sharply (-55%), but is seeing 129 cases per million people per day. This is really high and should be closer (or lower) than 40.
As a reminder, no state had held on to the criteria for more than 3 days straight.
North Dakota was green on 5/12, 5/13, 5/14. Kentucky met all the criteria briefly for a day on 5/13.
North Dakota was steadily decreasing in cases over the past 3 days, but based on the state's report today, its 14-day cases flattened. So it shifts to yellow.
Kentucky briefly met all the criteria on 5/13, going from red to green. A big swing because it reported a large number of tests processed and went from cases increasing to decreasing for the past 14-day period. The state dropped to yellow on 5/14 because the number of tests it was doing dropped below the testing target. It continues to stay yellow because the 14-day case trend has flattened.
It is expected that states will fluctuate as they navigate this crisis. What's key is preserving the progress that they've made.