Updated: 9/27 at 9:50pm PT. Please Shift + Refresh for the latest. If you have feedback send it to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response

Each state's progress towards a new normal
September 21 - Op-Ed: The White House Coronavirus Task Force needs to stop hiding its weekly reports from the public
Like a hurricane, a virus has no respect for borders or state lines. All data regarding the COVID response that is assembled by the White House Coronavirus Task Force and HHS must be shared with everyone. A public crisis requires a unified public response. A unified public response requires public data.

Read the full op-ed at STAT.
Earlier today, CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, COVID Act Now, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press webinar outlining new data on COVID-19 spread indicators, college hotspots and addressed how states can prepare for flu season.

You can view the video of the press conference here.
September 1 - Carnegie Mellon University's Symptom Survey & Symptom Data Challenge
We have added symptom data from Carnegie Mellon University's Delphi group. The group coordinates a daily symptom survey with Facebook, a consortium of universities, and public health officials. It has run continuously since early April 2020, and about 70,000 people in the United States participate every day. You will see this data in our "How is the Disease Spreading?" table.

Also! The Symptom Data Challenge challenges participants to enable earlier detection and improved situational awareness of the COVID-19 outbreak by using data from these symptom surveys. Submissions are due by Tuesday, September 29th, 2020. See the challenge website for more details.
August 17 - Why is positivity in Washington at 100%? Because the state has a data issue.
Since August 1st, Washington state has not reported its daily test tallies. This is because of issues with the state's disease reporting system. We rely on the COVID Tracking Project and their team aggregates the publicly available data from the state's website. Since no data is available, our calculation for a state's positivity [Cases / Total Tests] is 100%.

The state reports that the issue will be fixed by next week: "Updates are anticipated to resume the week of August 24th after we switch to the new methodology reporting total testing volumes rather than just the number of new individuals who got a negative or positive test result for the first time."
Earlier today CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press webinar. It included a "State of the States" which shared analysis on the different regional COVID-19 hot spots; more background on the new "incidence adjusted" test target; and a look at the data issues from California, Kentucky, and Washington.

You can view the video of press conference here.

Good news. We've incorporated the latest "estimated" ICU & inpatient bed data from HHS. This dataset is back and we'll continue to report our experiences with it.

It is also worth noting that the state of Washington has had data reporting problems since August 1st. They are only reporting new cases, not total tests. Unfortunately that means we are calculating their positivity rate as a 100%. Once the glitch/issue is fixed, our dashboards will update accordingly.
How Is My State Measured?
Using the gating criteria provided by the White House, we've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness,  and increased testing.
In interpreting the criteria, we infer that having a “robust testing program in place” means an ample amount of tests (> 500K tests per day) and a good test positivity rate (<5%). See our criteria.

According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it.
How is My State Doing on Key Measures?
Using a simple red, yellow, green scale, you can see the progress towards the key measures.
How is the Disease Spreading?
What's critical is a downward trajectory of illness reported and documented cases.
Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?
Bed and ICU availability, case fatality rate, and cases per capita are a proxy for load on our hospitals. Not all data refreshes daily. Bed and ICU availability only refreshes Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday.
How Is My State Doing On Testing?
We track our country's daily progress towards two goals: reaching a baseline of 500K tests per day and an incident adjusted target per day. The targets for each state have been adjusted per capita.
What Data Are Missing?
Using sources like the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC we are able to start measure how a state is controlling the epidemic. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data. For the moment, this is the best representation of how a state is doing based on publicly available information.

Unfortunately, we cannot track how states are deploying contact tracing programs because that data is not reported yet. We also lack data sources for how states are implementing safe quarantine spaces. Once that data is available, we'll incorporate it.
Data & Sources
The data for this site comes from COVIDTracking.com (pulled on 9/27 at 9:50pm PT.), COVID Act Now (pulled on 9/26 at 10:15pm PT), the CDC and HHS (ILI pulled at 9/22 at 5:05pm PT, ICU/bed occupancy pulled on 9/20 at 9:50pm PT), CMU US Symptom Survey (pulled on 9/22 at 5:05pm PT), covid19statepolicy.org (pulled at 9/24 at 9:50pm PT). The data powering the charts can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
We are a group of public health & crisis experts with experience working at the White House, Department of Health & Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Learn more.