Updated: 7/12 at 10:10pm PT. Please Shift + Refresh for the latest. If you have feedback send it to: feedback@covidexitstrategy.org

Tracking Our COVID-19 Response

Each state's progress towards a new normal
July 10 - BRUISED RED - Updated Color Scale
As a country we've reached a record number of cases. We've added a new color to the scale: "Bruised Red". There were extremes that were not captured in our original scale. Our scale also has been adjusted to put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity".
You can see our definitions and criteria for each indicator and the color scale.
July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.
July 5 - New Maps - % Change of Cases, New Cases Per Million, and Positivity
We've added 3 new maps to accompany each of the sections below.
CovidExitStrategy.org, United States of Care, Resolve to Save Lives, and the Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy held a press conference call outlining the trends and concerns in states across the country that have seen increases in COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days.  You can listen to an audio of the press conference here
June 29 - Color Trend Now Adjusted Based on Incidents & ICU/Bed Thresholds Adjusted
The color trend now takes into account a state's CASES PER MILLION PER DAY. If the incidence rate is low (less than 40) it will not turn a state completely red. This impacts: Alaska, Montana, Michigan, Maine, and West Virginia. They are now yellow instead of red because of their low incident rate.

The ICU and bed thresholds have been adjusted: red is > 80% occupied, yellow is between 80%-70% occupied, and green is < 70% occupied. The measure has also changed from "availability to "occupied" to match how most states report this information.
June 27 - Snapshot of Map from May 28th to June 27th - View Larger Image
How Is My State Measured?
Using the gating criteria provided by the White House, we've tracked each state's progress towards its reduction in symptoms and cases, health system readiness,  and increased testing.
In interpreting the criteria, we infer that having a “robust testing program in place” means an ample amount of tests (> 500K tests per day) and a good test positivity rate (<5%). See our criteria.

According to the White House guidelines, a state must meet this criteria for 14-days to move into the "next phase". They've highlighted 3 phases and how restrictions can be relaxed as each are met.

Note: On 5/19, the CDC released its official guidance on its criteria. Our team will be reviewing and determining how to incorporate it.
What Data Are Missing?
Using sources like the COVID Tracking Project and the CDC we are able to start measure how a state is controlling the epidemic. Some sources are more "real-time" like case data, but others can lag a week like influenza-like illness (ILI) data. For the moment, this is the best representation of how a state is doing based on publicly available information.

Unfortunately, we cannot track how states are deploying contact tracing programs because that data is not reported yet. We also lack data sources for how states are implementing safe quarantine spaces. Once that data is available, we'll incorporate it.
How is My State Doing on Key Measures?
Using a simple red, yellow, green scale, you can see the progress towards the key measures.
How is the Disease Spreading?
What's critical is a downward trajectory of illness reported and documented cases.
Can Our Health System Handle the Spread?
Bed and ICU availability, case fatality rate, and cases per capita are a proxy for load on our hospitals. Not all data refreshes daily. Bed and ICU availability only refreshes Tuesday, Wednesday & Friday.
How Is My State Doing On Testing?
We track our country's daily progress towards two goals: reaching 500K tests per day and 4 million tests per day. The targets for each state have been adjusted per capita.
Data & Sources
The data for this site comes from COVIDTracking.com (pulled on 7/12 at 10:10pm PT), rt.live (pulled on 7/12 at 10:10pm PT), the CDC (ILI pulled at 7/11 at 10:10pm PT, ICU/bed occupancy pulled on 7/10 at 11:30pm PT), and covid19statepolicy.org (pulled at 7/10 at 11:30pm PT). The data powering the charts can be found in this Google Spreadsheet.
We are a group of public health & crisis experts with experience working at the White House, Department of Health & Human Services, and on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa. Learn more.